We aren't weak because we have data that is just too strong for me to write us off simply because of punk employment numbers.
No, I am never going to dismiss employment numbers as unimportant. Nothing's more important than employment. Nothing. We get jobs created we get a boom.
But I also have to point out that the parts of this economy that are touched by jobs are better than the jobs numbers themselves.
For example, you should not be able to sell 14 million cars if we are going into a recession. That's way too high. Lots of companies go into making and selling cars, so I think that we have to recognize that if you didn't know any better, we would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Or housing. Without a doubt, housing's not a growth engine. But it is also on the cusp of mattering as inventory is worked off. There's a perception that banks are still sitting on a huge number of homes. Maybe, but they are homes that are not desirable because the builders are building homes that they would not be building if they were worried about banks releasing inventory.
I think housing is finally on the mend, and you would not be getting that if employment were being crushed.We are on the verge of getting some new retail sales numbers, and while I know that much retail selling has been pulled forward because of the mild winter, we would not have any sales at all if we were truly slipping into a recession.
It is true that government spending is lower, so government hirings are moving down, not up. We are seeing a decline in the manufacturing economy related to the slowdown in drilling, which matters because drilling and related activity had been THE principal job generator in this country in the last few years.
The low in natural gas and the plummeting oil prices are worrisome for this new growth business, and if prices don't stabilize that, the jobs will continue to disappear. But that's not enough to offset the good.
No, I am not saying the economy is robust. I am saying that I think we are more robust than the employment numbers indicate. That's a dicey thing to say, but I think that the employment number has created too much of a wave to the negative, and I believe we will get a re-evaluation if we just get anything good out of Europe.
Just pointing out that we have to temper the negativity until we see more economic reports because there is too much good data for me to think that we are anywhere near a recession. That's important given that in 2011, when we were down and out, a recession seemed to be much more in the cards.
I'm not denying that things are worse globally. Brazil, India, and China are all worse, and that matters more than the United States. I'm just reiterating that if you can find stocks with domestic security, I still believe you will make money.
